Images of the Future and Scenarios - Documents

  • Cover Image 1989: Why the Wall really came down…..
    Abstract:

    1989: Why the Wall really came down…..

    Looking backwards sometimes makes it easier to look into the future.

    Written by SAMI Associate James Blackmore-Wright

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 1990: Foresight, small nations, and policy leadership
    Abstract:

    1990 – Foresight, small nations, and policy leadership

    Pacific island nations and the ‘slow tsunami’ of sea level rise

    Written by SAMI Principal Dr Wendy Schultz.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 1992: Shell – One world, two distinct scenarios
    Abstract:

    1992: Shell – One world, two distinct scenarios.

    Using scenarios to drive the direction, culture and effectiveness of an organisation are exemplified by the scenarios team at Shell.

    Written by SAMI Associate James Blackmore-Wright.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 1995: Industries changed by IT – role of infrastructure
    Abstract:

    1995: Industries changed by IT – role of infrastructure

    Nicholas Negroponte wrote in “Being Digital” (Negroponte, 1995) “Early in the next millennium your telephone won’t ring indiscriminately; it will receive, sort, and perhaps respond to your incoming calls like a well-trained English butler. Mass media will be redefined by systems for transmitting and receiving personalized information and entertainment. Schools will change to become more like museums and playgrounds for children to assemble ideas and socialize with children from all over the world. The digital planet will look and feel like the head of a pin.

    Written by SAMI Fellow Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 1996: Four scenarios for public education in Seattle
    Abstract:

    1996: Four scenarios for public education in Seattle

    This excerpt is based on a case study by Jay Ogilvy published in Scenarios in Public Policy, and related to a project undertaken in 1996 by the teachers’ union, the Seattle Education Association, with the aid of Global Business Network.It describes scenarios for the future of education and how they have been used in Seattle. We include it in our series of blogs on the use of futures as it shows the breakthroughs in understanding, leading to action, that can arise through a well-managed scenario project.

    Written by SAMI Fellow Gill Ringland

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 1998: Foresight of cultural change in Turkey
    Abstract:

    1998: Foresight of cultural change in Turkey

    This blog is based on a case study, written by Adam Scott and Adrian Davies of SAMI, and published in Scenarios for Business by Gill Ringland

    Written by SAMI Principal Cathy Dunn

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 1999: Scenarios for Scotland
    Abstract:

    1999: Scenarios for Scotland

    We’ve just lived through the Scottish Independence referendum, with the parties’ different visions of the future. Back in 1999, when the first Scottish Parliament was elected, SAMI were working on alternative Scenarios for Scotland in 2015 – so what better time to review that work?

    Written by SAMI Principal Huw Williams

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2000: Using scenarios to expose tacit assumptions
    Abstract:

    2000: Using scenarios to expose tacit assumptions

    This case study was first published in the 2nd edition of “Scenario Planning” in 2006.- Man Group in 2000 was a world-leading alternative investment management business. With a broad range of funds for institutional and private investors globally, it was known for its performance, innovative product design and investor service. Man manages over $70 billion and employs 1,800 people in 13 countries worldwide.

    Written by SAMI Fellow Gill Ringland

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2003: Using scenarios to set a 7 year plan
    Abstract:

    2003: Using scenarios to set a 7 year plan

    Professor Joan Stringer arrived at Napier University as Principal in January 2003 and took the opportunity to rethink the strategic agenda. Among many aspects of this, she asked Gill Ringland and Professor Ian Jones of SAMI Consulting to help with a Central Management Team event, to outline a new agenda and develop a plan to implement it.

    Written by SAMI Fellow Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2004: Surrey 2020 - A Vision with Wide Engagement
    Abstract:

    2004: Surrey 2020 - A Vision with Wide Engagement

    All local authorities in the UK were required to produce Community Plans, with different authorities adopting different strategies to accomplish this task. Surrey County Council decided to use scenario planning to create a vision for Surrey, looking towards the year 2020, as the basis of its Community Planning process. It decided to work through the Surrey Strategic Partnership (SSP), because it embraced all the local government authorities, statutory and community public service agencies and voluntary groups, thus providing an inclusive mechanism to link the diverse Surrey communities.

    Written by SAMI Fellow Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2006: Scenarios for India and China 2015
    Abstract:

    2006: Scenarios for India and China 2015

    Though still commonly referred to as emerging markets, both China and India have long outgrown the term, particularly as a result of expansion over the last decade and a half. It is also common to group the two countries together when in fact their political, economic and social structures are quite different. To take just two of the more important examples, China is a one-party communist state with obscure and hard to analyze regulatory structures, while India is the world’s largest democracy with overt and recognizable regulation; secondly, China has an ageing population, while India follows the more common emerging markets model of rapid growth at the younger end of the demographic curve.

    Blog written by SAMI Principal Malcolm Cooper

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2011: Insurance Industry View – a look to 2019
    Abstract:

    2011: Insurance Industry View – a look to 2019

    Susan Holliday, Head of Strategy for the Reinsurance Business Unit of Swiss Re, looks back at a strategic overview of the industry.

    This paper is the work of Susan Holliday and only contains my personal views, thoughts and opinions. It is not endorsed by Swiss Re nor does it constitute any official communication of Swiss Re.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2012: A Long View of the Legal Profession
    Abstract:

    2012: A Long View of the Legal Profession

    In 2012, Allen & Overy, a global legal firm often topping the FT “Most Innovative Law Firms” list, launched their “Long View” Project. This asked – how do you get a partnership to look outwards and embrace change?

    Written by SAMI Fellow, Gill Ringland

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2012: Here be Dragons
    Abstract:

    2012 – Here be Dragons

    While there have always been unknown, uncharted waters facing our organisations, the perils in the waters around us now seem to be much more dangerous than ever before. The title of our book published in 2012, Here be Dragons, comes from the map on our cover.

    Gill Ringland and Patricia Lustig, with Martin Duckworth, Rob Phaal and Chris Yapp, “Here be Dragons: Navigating in an Uncertain World, Choir Press, 2012, ISBN 0956219055

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2012: Megachange – the world in 2050
    Abstract:

    2012: Megachange – the world in 2050

    The Economist commissioned a report that was published in 2012 – discussing the changes between now and 2050 under the headings of People and Relationships; Heaven and Earth; Economy and business; Knowledge and Progress

    Written by SAMI Fellow, Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image 2014: 40 Years on from Limits to Growth
    Abstract:

    2014: 40 Years on from Limits to Growth

    Limits to Growth was a study about the future of our planet, first published in 1972. On behalf of the Club of Rome, Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and their team worked on systems analysis at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT. They created a computing model which took into account the relations between various global developments and produced computer simulations for alternative scenarios. Part of the modelling was different amounts of possibly available resources, different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control or environmental protection.

    Written by SAMI Fellow, Gill Ringland

    Keywords(s): SAMI 25; 1989; 2014
  • Cover Image Badges? We don’t need no LinkedIn badges - David Birch
    Keywords(s): 2014; APF; Compass; Education; trends analysis; scenarios, models of change; reviews; provocations; UFKH
  • Cover Image Biodiversity under threat – is the sixth mass extinction already under way?
    Abstract:

    Biodiversity under threat – is the sixth mass extinction already under way?

    We’ve known for many years that human activity can have a damaging effect on many ecosystems, threatening biodiversity. Now a study claims that the scale of this effect is so much greater than we thought, to the extent of being a “mass extinction”, the sixth in the history of the planet.

    Written by SAMI Principal, Huw Williams.

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Biotechnology – The Road to 2040
    Abstract:

    Biotechnology – The Road to 2040

    Biotechnology has long been recognised as a major driver of change in the worlds of healthcare and agriculture. The potential applications for genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and synthetic biology are so broad that they are likely to have many far-reaching implications, particularly in the field of food safety and security.

    Written by SAMI Principal, Huw Williams.

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Compass-Education (2014-SE-APF)
    Author(s): Curry, Andrew (editor)
    Keyword(s): scenarios, models of change; provocations; reviews; Education; 2014; APF; Compass; trends analysis
  • Cover Image Diversity: the turbulent and diverse futures of popular government
    Abstract:

    Page 69 Diversity: the turbulent and diverse futures of popular government

    Democracy, as defined by its Greek originators, has never been the global or even Western norm for government. The governments that we today label as “democratic” are in fact not what the ancient Greeks – or even the American framing fathers – would have called democracies. They are, rather, representative governments, or what political philosophers once called republics. Yet, no other form of government has ever made so great an impression on the imaginations of so many, and few other words in the English language carry such weight and such inherent validity as does democracy. This is so true; in fact, the common meaning of the word has evolved over time: for most people democracy now simply means representative government.

    Written by SAMI Associate, Richard Lum PhD

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Europe in decline?
    Abstract:

    Europe in decline?

    For many years the best view to take of Europe has been as a declining share of the world’s population, economy and power. Can migration reverse this trend?

    Written by SAMI Fellow and CEO Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Future of Membership Associations (1) 10-Jun-2014
    Author(s): Fox, Debra; Ringland, Gill; Smith, Matthew; Williams, Huw; Yapp, Dr Chris
    Keyword(s): Future of Professional Associations; Potential Users; forces for change; Syndicate Groups Models; Demographics; Technology; Priesthood; CLOSED GROUPS IN GLOBALLY COHERENT WORLD; Scenarios; Joined Up; Images of the Future and Scenarios; Key Success Factors; Not for Profit; CLOSED GROUPS IN GLOBALLY FRAGMENTED WORLD; KI; Users of Content; Offers and Wants; OPEN GROUPS IN GLOBALLY COHERENT WORLD; The Future of Membership Associations; Professional Associations; West to East; Masonic Cartels; Workshop 1; 2015; Environment; OPEN GROUPS IN GLOBALLY FRAGMENTED WORLD; Scenario Planning; Café Flux; 10 June 2014; Knowledge Insights
  • Cover Image Future of Membership Associations (2) 16-Sep-2014
    Author(s): Fox, Debra; Ringland, Gill
    Keyword(s): SAMI Global Forces of Change Cards; Digital Disruption; Membership Organisations; Scenarios; Accreditation; Not for Profit; Uncertainties; KI; Forecasts; Ethnographic Futures; Flexible Funding Model; The Future of Membership Associations; Sami Global Forces of Change Cards; Images of the Future; Priesthood Scenario; Workshop 2; Café Flux Scenario; 2014; Joined up Scenario; Scenario Planning; Livery Companies; 16 September 2014; VERGE; Societal Forces; Knowledge Insights
  • Cover Image Future of Membership Associations (3) 5-Mar-2015
    Author(s): Fox, Debra; Ringland, Gill
    Keyword(s): Syndicate Groups Models; Future of Professional Associations; 2015; Users of Content; Offers and Wants; Potential Users; Scenarios; Scenario Planning; Images of the Future and Scenarios; Key Success Factors; Not for Profit; Professional Associations
  • Cover Image Machine Learning and Professional Work – A Lookahead To 2040
    Abstract:

    Machine Learning and Professional Work – A Lookahead To 2040

    Machine learning will change most managerial and professional work beyond recognition over the next 25 years. In 2040, a person without a reasonable level of understanding and appreciation of machine learning will be disadvantaged for almost every management or professional role, much as a deficiency in numeracy, literacy or computer skills proves disadvantageous today

    Written by Ian Harris of Z/Yen

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image On the Brink of Machine Learning Revolution
    Abstract:

    On the Brink of Machine Learning Revolution

    The term “Big Data” has escaped the boundaries of the IT world. Even if people don’t know exactly what the term means, they’ve heard about the endless possibilities presented by Big Data and smart algorithms. Still, few people grasp how disruptive these developments are going to be.

    Written by Jane Zavalishina, CEO, Yandex Data Factory and Alexander Khaytin, COO, Yandex Data Factory;

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image One Planet Or a Thousand Countries?
    Abstract:

    One Planet Or a Thousand Countries?

    In 2945 there will be 1000 countries In 1995, John Naisbitt in “Global paradox” predicted that in 2045 there would be 1,000 countries in the world. He argued that in the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona, 172 countries competed. More than 200 teams took part in 2012. As the world becomes more universal, it also becomes more tribal. As people yield economic sovereignty and become economically interdependent, holding on to what distinguishes you from others becomes very important.

    Written by SAMI CEO and Fellow Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Our Year of SAMI’s 25th Anniversary
    Abstract:

    What have we learnt from these? Perhaps the single most important message from the historical views was the need to be able to think the unthinkable – to at least do the “what if?” thinking about events. 

    Written by SAMI Fellow and CEO Gill Ringland

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Overhauling higher education - Sarah Robinson
    Abstract:

    The changing shape of higher education Sara Robinson outlines some of the American trends that are challenging notions of higher education.

    Keywords(s): 2014; APF; Compass; Education; trends analysis; scenarios, models of change; reviews; provocations; UFKH
  • Cover Image Re-shaping the university - Bryan Alexander
    Abstract:

    The changing shape of higher education: Bryan Alexander outlines some of the American trends that are challenging notions of higher education.

    Keywords(s): 2014; APF; Compass; Education; trends analysis; scenarios, models of change; reviews; provocations; UFKH
  • Cover Image Romanian HE in 2015 - 01 Green Paper - For Quality and Leadership
    Author(s): CURAJ, Prof. Adrian
    Keyword(s): Knowledge Economy; Quality and Leadership in Romanian Higher Education
  • Cover Image Romanian HE in 2015 - 02 White Paper - For Quality and Leadership
    Author(s): Andreescu, Liviu; Curaj, Adrian; Gheorghiu, Radu; Zulean, Marian
    Keyword(s): Leadership; Higher Education; Transparency; Romania; Personalization; Funding; Europe; Diversity; Institutional Freedom; Outcomes; EU; Seeds for the future; Innovation; 2015; Education; Romanian Higher Education in 2025 Vision; Quality; 2025 Vision; Accountability; Green Paper; White Paper; High Level Expert Group
  • Cover Image Romanian HE in 2025 - 03 Vision - Seeds for the Future
    Author(s): Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) and its partners.
    Keyword(s): Leadership; Higher Education; Transparency; Romania; Personalization; Funding; Europe; Diversity; Institutional Freedom; Outcomes; Images of the future; EU; Seeds for the future; Innovation; 2015; Education; Quality; 2025; Vision; Accountability
  • Cover Image SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
    Author(s): Ringland, Gill; Schultz, Dr Wendy; Lye, David; Williams, Huw; Pearson, Ian; Dunn, Cathy; Kunter, Yesim; Zavalishina, Jane; Khaytin, Alexander; Harris, Ian; Owen, Mike; Lum, Richard; Moxey, Paul
    Keyword(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Scenario Planning: Managing for the future - 4. Examples of Scenarios
    Author(s): Ringland, Gill
    Keyword(s): example scenarios; presenting scenarios; Gill Ringland; types of scenarios; scenarios; Part IV; illustrate range of scenarios; planning; 2nd edition; 2014; Scenario planning; list of scenarios; range of scenarios; managing for the future; examples of scenarios; introduction; scenario examples; list of scenarios included
  • Cover Image SCENARIOS DEVELOPED BY ICL – MARK I
    Abstract:

    Three scenarios for the IT Industry

     

    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image SCENARIOS DEVELOPED BY ICL – MARK II
    Abstract: This section is based on “Scenarios for Information Markets in 2005”, Version 1.0, October 1995, written by Paul Clayton, Jane Dowsett, Steve Parker and Gill Ringland
    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image SCENARIOS FOR ORGANISATIONS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
    Abstract:

    The Business in the Third Millennium (BIT3M) programme was set up to explore the hypothesis that digital information will have a major impact on the way business evolves – or changes discontinuously – in the next decades. Since the impact might be different in Asia, the US and Europe, the programme had partners in all three geographies and cultures.

    The programme started with the construction of scenarios to describe possible ways that digital information could impact society and hurdles to this. By examining the roles of business, government and individuals a major new entity was identified – that of community. The programme also identified agility as a key requirement for the twenty-first century.

     

    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image SCENARIOS FOR SCOTLAND
    Abstract: These two scenarios were developed for the S4S project described in Chapter 5, and written by Adrian Davies of SAMI Consulting. The scenarios for Scotland‘s future start with the economy, the key driver of development, and then show the impact of the economy on other features of Scotland. These are grouped under the headings of culture, social cohesion, politics and infrastructure.
    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF BIOSCIENCES IN 2020 AND BEYOND
    Abstract:

    These scenarios form part of a report, “The Future of Biosciences”, edited by Paul J.H. Schoemaker and Michael S. Tomczyk (Schoemaker and Tomczyk, 2005).

     

    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image Scenarios for the future of publishing
    Author(s): Ringland, Gill
    Keyword(s): Scenarios for the future of the publishing of content
  • Cover Image SCENARIOS FOR THE TELECOM SUPPLY INDUSTRY
    Abstract:

    Roger Camrass of SRI developed four scenarios for the telecoms industry as part of the BIT3M project. It was clear from the research that there is a great deal of uncertainty and chaos in the telecom industry, in Asia, Europe and the US.

     

    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image SHELL GLOBAL SCENARIOS TO 2025
    Abstract: This section is based on an article by Dr Albert Bressand, Vice-President, Global Business Environment, Shell, which first appeared in VECTOR, the SAMI Consulting newsletter. More information is on the Shell Web site, www.shell.com/scenarios. The global scenarios to 2025 were launched in June 2005 at Chatham House, London.
    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image Student Needs 2025+ - Katie King
    Abstract:

    The end of the badge: Katie King on Student Needs 2025.

    Keywords(s): 2014; APF; Compass; Education; trends analysis; scenarios, models of change; reviews; provocations; UFKH
  • Cover Image Sunrise Industries
    Abstract:

    Sunrise Industries

    The economist Carlota Perez wrote a fascinating book, [1] just after the dotcom bubble burst. She describes five surges since 1770 that have created new wealth, new industries and institutions, starting with the industrial revolution, up to the ICT revolution

    Written by SAMI Fellow and CEO, Gill Ringland.

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Technology and the Arts and Media World to 2040
    Abstract:

    Technology and the Arts and Media World to 2040

    Technology has re-shaped the arts and media world dramatically over the last 10-15 years. It seems inevitable that many more fundamental changes will occur by 2040.

    Written by SAMI Principal, Huw Williams

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image Technology prospects for 2040
    Abstract:

    Technology prospects for 2040

    25 years is a long time in technology, but already less than a third of a lifetime. For the first third, you’re stuck having to live with primitive technology. Then for the middle third it gets a lot better. Then for the last third, you’re mainly trying to keep up and understand it, still using the stuff you learned in the middle third.

    Written by SAMI Associate, Ian Pearson of Futurizon Limited

    Keywords(s): SAMI Blogs 2040 Feb 2016 - Some snapshots of 2040
  • Cover Image THE CHALLENGE FORUM GLOBAL SCENARIOS FOR 2025
    Abstract:

    The Web site www.chforum.org offers hundreds of pages of analysis and speculation on the changing world. Below is a brief summary of the scenarios for 2025. The Web version is scattered with links which you can click on to learn more. We begin with a sketch of the driving forces and then describe the scenarios. This extract is published with the permission of The Challenge Forum.

     

    Keywords(s): Scenario planning; Gill Ringland; 2nd edition; 2014; managing for the future; scenarios; planning; Part IV; examples of scenarios; example scenarios; scenario examples; introduction; illustrate range of scenarios; presenting scenarios; range of scenarios; list of scenarios included; list of scenarios; types of scenarios
  • Cover Image The emerging learning model - Hardin Tibbs
    Abstract:

    New learning models From ‘the sage on the stage’ to ‘the guide on the side’. Hardin Tibbs on the end of the industrial university and the rise of new models of learning.

    Keywords(s): 2014; APF; Compass; Education; trends analysis; scenarios, models of change; reviews; provocations; UFKH